江蘇林洋能源股份有限公司氣候風險評估與財務影響分析

2026.01.08

江蘇林洋能源股份有限公司

Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co., Ltd.

氣候風險評估與財務影響分析

Climate Risk Assessment and Financial Impact Analysis

文件編號：LY-CL-002 版本：V1.0 生效日期：2026年1月8日

Document No.: LY-CL-002 Version: V1.0 Effective Date: January 8, 2026

一、目的與范圍
1. Purpose and Scope

本文件說明江蘇林洋能源股份有限公司（以下簡稱“公司”）開展氣候情景分析的流程、情景設定與主要結果，并針對識別出的最重大法規變化風險與最重大物理風險，披露其財務影響、影響時間范圍與應對成本。分析遵循氣候相關財務信息披露工作組（TCFD）框架的四要素結構，并參考國際財務報告可持續披露準則第 S2 號（IFRS S2）的要求。

This document sets out the process, scenario design and principal results of the climate scenario analysis conducted by Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co., Ltd. (the “Company”), and discloses the financial impact, time horizon and adaptation cost of the most significant regulatory change risk and the most significant physical risk identified. The analysis follows the four-pillar structure of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) and makes reference to IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures.

分析邊界為公司及合并報表范圍內子公司，覆蓋智能配用電、儲能、新能源三大業務板塊；分析對象包括自有生產基地（江蘇啟東、南通、河北平泉，安徽五河，以及印尼海外基地）與自持及運維的新能源電站。

The boundary is the Company and its consolidated subsidiaries, covering the three business segments of smart power distribution and consumption, energy storage and new energy. The scope includes Company-operated manufacturing bases (Qidong, Nantong, Pingquan in Hebei, Wuhe in Anhui, as well as overseas bases in Indonesia) and the new energy power stations owned and serviced by the Company.

二、氣候情景分析流程
2. Climate Scenario Analysis Process

公司每年開展一次氣候情景分析，流程分為六個步驟，由安全環保部牽頭，戰略規劃部、財務部、各業務板塊共同參與，分析結果提交董事會戰略與可持續發展委員會審議。

The Company conducts a climate scenario analysis annually through a six-step process led by the Safety and Environmental Protection Department with the participation of the Strategy Planning Department, the Finance Department and each business segment; the results are submitted to the Board’s Strategy and Sustainability Committee for review.

步驟	工作內容	參與部門
1. 風險與機遇識別	按物理風險（急性、慢性）與轉型風險（政策法規、技術、市場、聲譽）分類，結合業務暴露識別氣候相關風險與機遇清單	安全環保部、戰略規劃部、各業務板塊
2. 情景設定	選取不少于兩個代表性情景，分別為有序轉型的低排放情景與高排放情景，明確各情景下的政策、技術與溫升參數	戰略規劃部、安全環保部
3. 暴露與脆弱性分析	將生產基地與電站按地理位置、海拔、氣候帶、能耗結構、客戶結構映射至各情景	安全環保部、各業務板塊
4. 影響評估	采用定性分析方式，評估各風險對收入、成本、資產價值、融資能力的傳導路徑與影響方向，對可貨幣化的重點項目輔以定量測算	財務部、各業務板塊
5. 重要性排序	按發生可能性與財務影響程度打分排序，識別最重大風險	戰略規劃部、財務部
6. 應對與披露	制定應對措施、預算與責任分工，結果納入公司風險管理清單并年度披露	董事會戰略與可持續發展委員會
Step	Work Content	Departments Involved
1. Risk and opportunity identification	Identify climate-related risks and opportunities by category — physical (acute and chronic) and transition (policy and legal, technology, market, reputation) — based on business exposure	Safety and Environmental Protection Dept.; Strategy Planning Dept.; business segments
2. Scenario design	Select no fewer than two representative scenarios — an orderly low-emission transition scenario and a high-emission scenario — and define the policy, technology and temperature parameters of each	Strategy Planning Dept.; Safety and Environmental Protection Dept.
3. Exposure and vulnerability analysis	Map bases and power stations to each scenario by location, elevation, climate zone, energy mix and customer mix	Safety and Environmental Protection Dept.; business segments
4. Impact assessment	Use a qualitative approach to assess transmission pathways and direction of impact on revenue, cost, asset value and financing capacity, supplemented by quantitative estimates for material items that can be monetized	Finance Dept.; business segments
5. Materiality ranking	Score by likelihood and magnitude of financial impact, and identify the most significant risks	Strategy Planning Dept.; Finance Dept.
6. Response and disclosure	Set response measures, budgets and responsibilities; incorporate results into the enterprise risk register and disclose annually	Board Strategy and Sustainability Committee

三、情景設定與分析方式
3. Scenario Design and Analytical Approach

公司采用以下兩個氣候情景開展分析，其中情景一與《巴黎協定》溫控目標路徑一致，情景二為高排放路徑。兩個情景均覆蓋 2030 年（短期）、2040 年（中期）與 2050 年（長期）三個時間節點。

The Company uses the following two climate scenarios. Scenario 1 is consistent with the temperature pathways of the Paris Agreement, while Scenario 2 is a high-emission pathway. Both cover three time horizons: 2030 (short term), 2040 (medium term) and 2050 (long term).

項目	情景一（≤2℃，有序轉型）	情景二（>2℃，高排放）
參照情景	IPCC SSP1-2.6 / NGFS 凈零 2050 有序轉型情景	IPCC SSP5-8.5 / NGFS 當前政策情景
溫升幅度	2100 年前控制在 2℃ 以內，力爭 1.5℃	2100 年前約 3–4℃，本世紀中葉超過 2℃
碳價路徑	中國全國碳市場擴容并逐步收緊，2030 年約 100 元/噸，2050 年升至 300 元以上	碳價長期低位，2030 年約 50 元/噸，2050 年不足 100 元/噸
政策假設	綠電交易、綠證與產品碳足跡核算規則全面落地，出口市場碳關稅與電池法規趨嚴	國內政策節奏放緩，國際貿易碳壁壘加速且碎片化
物理參數	溫升受控，極端天氣頻率溫和上升	極端高溫、強降水、臺風與干旱頻率與強度顯著上升，海平面加速上升
分析方式	定性分析為主，對重大風險項目輔以定量測算	同左
Item	Scenario 1 (≤2℃, orderly transition)	Scenario 2 (>2℃, high emissions)
Reference scenario	IPCC SSP1-2.6 / NGFS Net Zero 2050 orderly transition	IPCC SSP5-8.5 / NGFS current policies
Temperature rise	Held below 2℃, pursuing 1.5℃, by 2100	About 3–4℃ by 2100; above 2℃ by mid-century
Carbon price path	China ETS expands and tightens; about RMB 100/t in 2030, above RMB 300/t by 2050	Carbon prices remain low; about RMB 50/t in 2030, below RMB 100/t by 2050
Policy assumptions	Green power trading, green certificates and product carbon footprint rules fully implemented; carbon border taxes and battery regulations tighten in export markets	Slower domestic policy action; international carbon barriers accelerate and fragment
Physical parameters	Contained warming; moderate rise in extreme weather frequency	Marked rise in frequency and intensity of extreme heat, heavy rainfall, typhoons and drought; accelerating sea-level rise
Approach	Predominantly qualitative, with quantitative estimates for material items	Same as left

公司本次分析采用定性分析方式，即通過情景打分矩陣評估各風險的影響方向與相對量級，不以貨幣化模型輸出單一數值；僅對已具備可靠成本參數的重點項目（如碳價成本、改造投入）進行定點測算，并在第五章和第六章列示。

This analysis adopts a qualitative approach: a scenario scoring matrix is used to assess the direction and relative magnitude of each risk, rather than deriving single values from a monetized model. Point estimates are made only for selected items with reliable cost parameters (such as carbon price costs and retrofit investment), and are presented in Sections 5 and 6.

四、分析結果
4. Results of the Analysis

（一）轉型風險
(1) Transition Risks

風險類別	具體風險	情景一（≤2℃）	情景二（>2℃）
政策法規	碳定價與碳市場覆蓋范圍擴大、產品碳足跡與能效標準趨嚴	高	中
政策法規	出口市場碳關稅（如歐盟 CBAM）與電池法規要求	高	中高
技術	低能耗工藝、低碳材料替代帶來的設備更新壓力	中高	中
市場	客戶與投資者對低碳產品與綠電使用比例要求提高	高	中
聲譽	氣候信息披露不充分引發評級下調與融資成本上升	中	低
Risk Type	Specific Risk	Scenario 1 (≤2℃)	Scenario 2 (>2℃)
Policy and legal	Carbon pricing and wider ETS coverage; tightening product carbon footprint and energy efficiency standards	High	Medium
Policy and legal	Carbon border taxes in export markets (e.g. EU CBAM) and battery regulation requirements	High	Medium-high
Technology	Pressure to replace equipment for low-energy processes and low-carbon material substitution	Medium-high	Medium
Market	Higher customer and investor expectations on low-carbon products and green electricity share	High	Medium
Reputation	Rating downgrades and higher financing costs from inadequate climate disclosure	Medium	Low

（二）物理風險
(2) Physical Risks

風險類別	具體風險	情景一（≤2℃）	情景二（>2℃）
急性	臺風、暴雨洪澇對東南沿海生產基地與電站的破壞	中	高
急性	極端高溫導致設備降容、限電與停機	中	高
慢性	海平面上升與灘涂鹽漬化影響沿海廠區與光伏電站	低中	高
慢性	降水格局改變影響光伏輻照資源與發電量穩定性	低	中高
Risk Type	Specific Risk	Scenario 1 (≤2℃)	Scenario 2 (>2℃)
Acute	Damage to manufacturing bases and power stations in coastal areas from typhoons and rainstorms	Medium	High
Acute	Derating, curtailment and outages caused by extreme heat	Medium	High
Chronic	Sea-level rise and tidal flat salinization affecting coastal plants and PV stations	Low-medium	High
Chronic	Changed precipitation patterns affecting solar irradiation and generation stability	Low	Medium-high

（三）氣候機遇
(3) Climate Opportunities

分析同時識別出三項主要機遇：一是零碳園區、綠電直連與工商業儲能需求增長，公司具備“源、網、荷、儲、數”一體化能力；二是低碳產品與產品碳足跡核算服務形成差異化競爭力，利于進入高標準市場；三是綠色融資渠道拓寬，可持續發展掛鉤貸款與綠色債券可降低綜合融資成本。

Three principal opportunities are also identified: first, growth in demand for zero-carbon parks, green power direct connection and commercial and industrial storage, where the Company has integrated source-grid-load-storage-digital capabilities; second, low-carbon products and carbon footprint accounting services creating differentiation that supports entry into high-standard markets; and third, broader green financing channels, where sustainability-linked loans and green bonds can lower overall financing costs.

五、最重大法規變化風險及財務影響
5. Most Significant Regulatory Change Risk and Financial Impact

經重要性排序，公司識別的最重大法規變化風險為：碳定價機制覆蓋范圍擴大與出口市場碳邊境調節機制（碳關稅）疊加帶來的合規成本風險。該風險可能影響公司儲能系統集成、光伏電池組件制造與智能配用電產品等相關出口及國內業務，在情景一下發生可能性與影響程度均最高。

Following materiality ranking, the most significant regulatory change risk is the compliance cost risk arising from the combination of an expanded carbon pricing regime and carbon border adjustment mechanisms (carbon border taxes) in export markets. The risk may affect the Company’s relevant domestic and export businesses, including energy storage system integration, PV cell and module manufacturing and smart power distribution, and ranks highest in both likelihood and magnitude under Scenario 1.

（一）財務影響
(1) Financial Impact

財務影響路徑	影響說明
營業成本上升	自有生產基地外購電力與化石燃料被納入碳定價范圍后，需為未履約部分購買配額；按情景一 2030 年碳價約 100 元/噸估算，若年度排放量的 30% 需通過購買配額履約，年度新增成本約為年度排放量（噸）× 100 元 × 30%，以基準年經鑒證排放量為計算基礎。
出口產品關稅成本	隨著歐盟CBAM機制實施及未來可能的適用范圍擴大，公司相關出口業務可能面臨新增碳成本與合規要求。在相關產品被納入適用范圍的情景下，假設出口成本增加1%–3%。
合規與核算成本	產品碳足跡核算、第三方核查、碳管理信息系統建設等新增管理成本，預計每年 150 萬–300 萬元。
資產減值風險	高碳排放工藝相關設備可能提前淘汰，形成固定資產減值或加速折舊。
融資成本	氣候信息披露不充分或轉型進度落后可能影響綠色融資資格，融資成本上升 10–30 個基點。
Financial Impact Pathway	Description
Higher operating costs	Once purchased electricity and fossil fuels at Company-operated bases fall within carbon pricing, allowances must be purchased for the uncovered portion. Assuming a 2030 carbon price of about RMB 100/t under Scenario 1, if 30% of annual emissions must be covered by purchased allowances, annual incremental cost is annual emissions (t) × RMB 100 × 30%, calculated on the assured base-year emissions.
Export tariff costs	With the implementation of the EU CBAM and its possible future expansion, the Company’s relevant exports may face additional carbon costs and compliance requirements. If relevant products are brought within its scope, an indicative 1%–3% increase in export costs is assumed.
Compliance and accounting costs	New management costs for product carbon footprint accounting, third-party verification and carbon management information systems are estimated at RMB 1.5–3 million per year.
Asset impairment risk	Equipment associated with high-emission processes may be retired early, leading to impairment or accelerated depreciation.
Financing costs	Inadequate climate disclosure or lagging transition progress may affect eligibility for green financing, raising financing costs by 10–30 basis points.

（二）影響時間范圍
(2) Time Horizon

該風險的影響呈階段性釋放：短期（2026–2030 年）影響集中在出口業務成本與合規管理成本以國內碳市場擴圍和歐盟CBAM適用規則實施及可能的范圍擴大為主，在相關出口產品適用時影響出口業務成本與合規管理成本；中期（2031–2040 年）免費配額基本取消、碳價進入快速上行通道，影響擴大至全部自有運營場所的履約成本；長期（2041–2050 年）碳價高位運行，高碳工藝資產面臨淘汰，影響體現為資產減值與結構性成本上升。綜合判斷，該風險的主要財務影響期為 2028–2040 年。

The impact of this risk materializes in stages. In the short term (2026–2030), the expansion of China’s ETS, implementation of applicable EU CBAM rules and potential expansion of its coverage are key developments, with export and compliance costs affected where relevant products become subject to CBAM. In the medium term (2031–2040), free allocation is largely eliminated and carbon prices enter a rapid upward phase, extending the impact to compliance costs across all Company-operated sites. In the long term (2041–2050), carbon prices remain high, carbon-intensive assets face retirement, and the impact manifests as asset impairment and structural cost increases. Overall, the principal financial impact period is 2028–2040.

（三）應對成本計算
(3) Cost of Response to Risk

應對措施	應對成本（萬元）	計算依據
廠區屋頂光伏與 BIPV 建設	12,000	按新增裝機 40MW、單位投資 3 元/W 估算，年發電約 4,000 萬千瓦時，可覆蓋自有用電的 25%–30%
節能改造與能效提升	6,000	按空壓、制冷、烘干等重點工序改造，年節電量約 1,200 萬千瓦時，投資回收期 3–4 年
碳管理信息系統與核算體系	1,500	含系統建設 800 萬元、產品碳足跡核算與第三方核查 700 萬元（五年）
綠電交易與綠證采購溢價	3,000	按年采購綠電 1 億千瓦時、溢價 0.03 元/千瓦時、五年累計估算
合計	22,500	占同期預計營業收入的約 0.9%，年均約 4500 萬元
Measure	Cost of Response (RMB 10k)	Basis of Calculation
Rooftop PV and BIPV	12,000	Based on 40 MW of new capacity at RMB 3/W; annual generation of about 40 million kWh, covering 25%–30% of own electricity use
Energy-saving retrofit and efficiency	6,000	Retrofit of compressed air, cooling and drying processes; annual electricity savings of about 12 million kWh, payback in 3–4 years
Carbon management IT system and accounting	1,500	RMB 8 million for system build plus RMB 7 million over five years for product carbon footprint accounting and third-party verification
Green power trading and certificate premium	3,000	Annual purchase of 100 million kWh of green power at a premium of RMB 0.03/kWh over five years
Total	22,500	About 0.9% of projected revenue over the period, or about RMB 45 million per year

應對收益方面，上述措施預計每年減少外購電力約 5,200 萬千瓦時，折減排放約 2.9 萬噸二氧化碳當量，按情景一2030年碳價100元/噸及30%排放量需購買配額的假設，可規避配額購買成本約87萬元/年；同時通過綠電使用降低相關出口產品隱含碳排放，并在適用碳邊境調節要求時減少相應成本。

In terms of benefits, these measures are expected to reduce purchased electricity by about 52 million kWh per year, cutting emissions by about 29,000 tCO2e; at the assumed 2030 carbon price of RMB 100/tCO2e under Scenario 1 and with 30% of emissions requiring purchased allowances, this corresponds to approximately RMB 0.87 million in avoided allowance costs per year. Green electricity use also reduces the embedded emissions of relevant export products and may reduce carbon border adjustment costs where applicable.

六、最重大物理風險及財務影響
6. Most Significant Physical Risk and Financial Impact

經重要性排序，公司識別的最重大物理風險為：臺風與暴雨洪澇等極端天氣對東南沿海生產基地及新能源電站造成的急性物理風險。公司主要生產基地與大量自持光伏、風電、儲能電站位于江蘇沿海、安徽及東南沿海地區，處于臺風影響路徑與暴雨洪澇高風險區，情景二下該風險發生頻率與強度顯著上升。

Following materiality ranking, the most significant physical risk is the acute physical risk posed by extreme weather such as typhoons and rainstorms to manufacturing bases and new energy stations along the southeast coast. The Company’s main manufacturing bases and a large number of owned PV, wind and storage stations are located in coastal Jiangsu, Anhui and the southeast coastal region, within typhoon tracks and high flood-risk areas, and the frequency and intensity of this risk rise markedly under Scenario 2.

（一）財務影響
(1) Financial Impact

財務影響路徑	影響說明
固定資產損失	廠房、屋頂光伏、儲能電站設備受風災水毀，形成固定資產報廢與修復支出；單次中等強度臺風造成的直接損失估計在 500 萬–2,000 萬元區間。
營業中斷損失	生產基地停工與電站停運導致的產量與發電量損失，按單個基地停產 5–10 天估算，影響營業收入 1%–2%。
發電量下降	極端天氣影響輻照與風速穩定性，電站利用小時數下降，直接減少發電收入。
保險費率上升	氣候風險敞口上升推高財產險與營業中斷險費率，保險成本預計上升 15%–30%。
運維成本增加	災后搶修、加固與巡檢頻次提高，運維支出相應上升。
Financial Impact Pathway	Description
Fixed asset losses	Plants, rooftop PV and storage station equipment damaged by wind and flood, resulting in write-offs and repair expenditure; direct losses from a single moderate typhoon are estimated at RMB 5–20 million.
Business interruption losses	Output and generation losses from plant shutdowns and station outages; assuming 5–10 days of shutdown at a single base, this affects 1%–2% of revenue.
Lower generation	Extreme weather affects irradiation and wind stability, reducing station utilization hours and directly cutting generation revenue.
Higher insurance premiums	Rising climate exposure pushes up property and business interruption insurance rates, with insurance costs expected to rise by 15%–30%.
Higher O&M costs	Post-disaster repair, reinforcement and more frequent inspections raise maintenance expenditure.

（二）影響時間范圍
(2) Time Horizon

該風險為持續性風險，貫穿短、中、長期。短期（2026–2030 年）以偶發性臺風暴雨事件沖擊為主，影響表現為單次事件的損失與停產；中期（2031–2040 年）隨情景二溫升加劇，事件頻率與強度上升，年均損失呈上升趨勢，保險成本進入持續上行通道；長期（2041–2050 年）沿海廠區面臨海平面上升與鹽漬化的疊加影響，可能觸及資產重大改造或遷址決策。綜合判斷，該風險的主要財務影響期為 2026–2040 年，且情景二下的累計損失顯著高于情景一。

This risk is continuous and spans all three horizons. In the short term (2026–2030) it manifests mainly as occasional typhoon and rainstorm events, with losses and shutdowns on a per-event basis. In the medium term (2031–2040), as warming intensifies under Scenario 2, event frequency and intensity rise, average annual losses trend upward and insurance costs enter a sustained upward path. In the long term (2041–2050), coastal plants face the combined effects of sea-level rise and salinization, potentially triggering major asset retrofit or relocation decisions. Overall, the principal financial impact period is 2026–2040, and cumulative losses under Scenario 2 are materially higher than under Scenario 1.

（三）應對成本計算
(3) Cost of Response to Risk

應對措施	應對成本（萬元）	計算依據
廠區防洪排澇與結構加固	4,500	按沿海三個生產基地加高防汛墻、增設排水泵站、屋面與設備基礎加固，單基地約 1,500 萬元
電站抗風設計與災備	3,000	按沿海及臺風影響區電站支架加固、組件抗風等級提升、備品備件儲備，覆蓋裝機約 1.2GW
氣象監測與預警系統	800	含氣象數據服務、電站智能巡檢無人機與在線監測終端
保險安排優化	1,200	按五年保費增量估算，通過集中投保與風險自留結構優化對沖費率上升
災后應急與業務連續性	1,000	含應急預案演練、備用產能安排與關鍵設備儲備
合計	10,500	占同期預計營業收入的約 0.4%，年均約 2,100 萬元
Measure	Cost of Response (RMB 10k)	Basis of Calculation
Flood control, drainage and structural reinforcement	4,500	Raising flood walls, adding drainage pump stations and reinforcing roofs and equipment foundations at three coastal bases, at about RMB 15 million per base
Wind-resistant design and disaster preparedness for stations	3,000	Reinforcing mounts, upgrading module wind resistance and holding spares for stations in typhoon-affected areas, covering about 1.2 GW
Meteorological monitoring and early warning	800	Meteorological data services, inspection drones and online monitoring terminals
Optimized insurance arrangement	1,200	Estimated five-year premium increment, using centralized placement and optimized retention structure to offset rate increases
Emergency response and business continuity	1,000	Emergency drills, back-up capacity arrangements and critical equipment reserves
Total	10,500	About 0.4% of projected revenue over the period, or about RMB 21 million per year

應對收益方面，上述措施預計可將單次中等強度臺風造成的直接損失降低 40%–50%，并將因災停產時間壓縮至 3 天以內，相應減少營業中斷損失；同時抗風與防洪能力的提升有助于維持保險費率穩定，并滿足客戶與金融機構對資產韌性的審查要求。

In terms of benefits, these measures are expected to reduce direct losses from a single moderate typhoon by 40%–50% and to shorten weather-related shutdowns to within three days, correspondingly reducing business interruption losses; stronger wind and flood resilience also helps keep insurance rates stable and meets customer and financier requirements on asset resilience.

七、治理安排與后續工作
7. Governance and Next Steps

氣候風險納入公司整體風險管理體系，由董事會戰略與可持續發展委員會監督，董事會每年至少一次將氣候相關議題列入會議議程。安全環保部負責人負責統籌公司氣候相關風險與機遇的識別、評估和管理。財務部負責財務影響測算，各業務板塊負責落實應對措施。本分析至少每年更新一次，發生重大氣候變化相關政策調整、重大極端天氣事件或重大投資決策時啟動專項更新。公司將在年度可持續發展報告中披露分析進展、風險變化及應對措施執行情況。

Climate risk is integrated into the Company’s enterprise risk management system, overseen by the Board’s Strategy and Sustainability Committee. Climate-related issues are scheduled on the Board of Directors' agenda at least annually. The Head of the Safety and Environmental Protection Department is responsible for coordinating the identification, assessment and management of the Company's climate-related risks and opportunities. The Finance Department is responsible for quantifying financial impacts and each business segment is responsible for implementing response measures. This analysis is updated at least annually, and a dedicated update is triggered by major climate policy changes, significant extreme weather events or major investment decisions. Progress of the analysis, changes in risk and implementation of response measures are disclosed in the annual sustainability report.

下一階段，公司將逐步提升定量分析能力，建立分基地、分電站的排放與氣象數據基礎，為關鍵風險項目引入貨幣化模型與壓力測試，并探索將氣候因素納入投資決策與資產估值的正式程序。

In the next phase the Company will progressively strengthen its quantitative capabilities by building site-level and station-level emissions and meteorological datasets, introducing monetized models and stress testing for key risk items, and exploring formal procedures for incorporating climate factors into investment decisions and asset valuation.

江蘇林洋能源股份有限公司氣候風險評估與財務影響分析

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